  Nicks have become an
integral part of the decision-making process in the mating and purchasing of
Thoroughbreds. Most breeders recognize that an affinity or compatibility can exist
between two Thoroughbred sire lines, such that, when crossed, those lines yielded a
greater proportion of superior runners than when either one of them are crossed with other
lines. Great breeders, from Federico Tesio (whose most important legacy to the
Thoroughbred breed was Nearco, whom he bred specifically with a nick in mind) to
present-day breeders around the world have relied on observed nicks to help guide their
breeding plans and decisions.
 In order to identify
nicks in a systematic way, WTC developed a method based on sire-line analysis. The
effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by the immensely popular Lukas At Auction,
written by Joe Bagan. Ongoing studies by WTC and OWNER-BREEDER show that
approximately 25% of the Thoroughbred population are the product of highly successful
nicks ("A" rated nicks) while over 70% of stakes winners are "A" rated
nicks! With overwhelming results like these, the Werk Nick Rating should become an
important part of your selection process.
These nick ratings are based on
the percentage by which a certain sire line, when combined with a certain broodmare sire
line, exceeds its performance, on average, with other lines. To make the rating
easier to understand, we have developed a scale which converts the percentage to a letter
grade ranging from "F" to "A". In rare cases, the rating may be
as high as "A+" or even "A++". We emphasize that an
"A" rated nick does not guarantee success, nor does an "F" rated nick
guarantee failure. An "A" rated nick indicates that a far greater
percentage of stakes winners has resulted from that cross than expected. An
"F" rated nick indicates that the number of stakes winners resulting from a
cross is at least 50% below expectations. This does not mean that there cannot be
success or will not be success from such a mating in the future. It does mean that
in all the experience of the last 20 years of winners of open stakes races, that type of
mating has had a lack of success as measured by stakes winner production.
The overall evaluation of
Thoroughbred purchases and matings is a complex proposition, and to be successful requires
the use of every tool available. Breeders and buyers of Thoroughbreds gain an
important advantage when they use the Werk Nick Rating to plan matings or evaluate
proposed purchases. The Werk Nick Rating enables breeders and buyers to avoid
crosses that have had little or no success in the past. At the same time, it enables
them to duplicate successful sire-line crosses, thus dramatically increasing their chances
for success.
For a practical businessperson
seeking a sound return on money invested, it makes no sense to buck measurably unfavorable
odds. Breeding a superior racehorse is already a difficult enough proposition.
The Werk Nick Rating allows you to see into the future by looking into the past -- and
thereby to avoid mating patterns that have failed.
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