Archive for October, 2007
Monday, October 29th, 2007
Returning from the Breeders’ Cup yesterday, I was reflecting on the many comments I heard regarding how the weather/track conditions played a role in the results of the day’s races. While this may be true, nothing should be taken away from the performances of the eight winners. There were no undeserving winners, and there were no flukes. In fact, this is the FIRST TIME in the 24 runnings of the Breeders’ Cup, that ALL the winners had previously won a GRADE 1 race during the same year! This is a very, very impressive group of champions.
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Sunday, October 21st, 2007
As of Wednesday 10/31/07, 11 major Kentucky stud farms – Adena Springs, Claiborne, Hill ‘n’ Dale, Darley, Lane’s End, Overbrook, Pin Oak Stud, Stonewall, Three Chimneys, Vinery, and Wintergreen – have announced their 2008 stud fees. Here’s the count:
Stud Fees Up: 13
Stud Fees Down: 30
No Change: 63
It’s pretty clear that stud fees have peaked and a market adjustment has begun. With few exceptions, it’s nearly impossible to expand stallions books and increase stud fees at the same time. This is certainly good news for breeders. I’ll continue to post the cumulative results here as farms continue to announce 2008 fees.
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Saturday, October 20th, 2007
I’ve been doing Best of Sale for the majority of sales in North America since 1990. Today, I just finished evaluating Day 1 of the Keeneland November sale. In all of the past 17 years, I have never seen a stronger first day for broodmares! Normally, 35% to 38% of Day 1 qualify as BOS recommendations. This year the number is 45%. But the real story is the number of highly-rated mares. For BOS, I use a star rating system with 1.0 Stars being the minimum qualifier and 5.0 Star being as good as it gets. Look at these ratings for Day 1:
5.0 Stars — 5 Broodmares
4.5 Stars — 9 Broodmares
4.0 Stars — 10 Broodmares
3.5 Stars — 13 Broodmares
I reviewed my recommendations over the past 17 years for Day 1 at Keeneland November, and the previous high for 5.0 Star Recommendations was four, BUT that was for the ENTIRE sale! The same hold true for the 4.5 Star, 4.0 Star, and 3.5 Star recommendations. All I can say is that if you are looking foundation-type broodmares, this year’s Keeneland November sale may be the best opportunity you will ever have. I will post an update after I finish Day 2.
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Friday, October 19th, 2007
I’m sure all of you who use email on a regular basis get bombarded with jokes, funny photos and videos. I know I do, and most of them go in the trash after viewing. Once in a while something special or particularly funny comes along. I received this one a couple of weeks ago and decided to share it with readers. I call it “Do the Cockatoo”
http://birdloversonly.blogspot.com/2007/09/may-i-have-this-dance.html
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Tuesday, October 16th, 2007
The flurry of stud fee announcements continue with Lane’s End Farm. They are:
A.P. INDY — $300,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
AFTER MARKET — $30,000 – Retiring to stud for 2008
ARAGORN — $30,000 — NO CHANGE from 2007
BELONG TO ME — $12,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
BOWMAN’S BAND — $6,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
CITY ZIP — $15,000 – DOWN from $20,000 in 2007
DIXIELAND BAND — $50,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
DIXIE BRASS — $50,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
GULCH — $20,000 – DOWN from $30,000 in 2007
KINGMAMBO — Private – NO CHANGE from 2007
LANGFUHR — $25,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
LEMON DROP KID — $25,000 – UP from $20,000 in 2007
MINESHAFT — $75,000 – DOWN from $100,000 in 2007
MINGUN — $7,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
PLEASANTLY PERFECT – $30,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
PLEASANT TAP — $25,000 – UP from $15,000 in 2007
ROCK HARD TEN — $50,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
SMART STRIKE — $150,000 – UP from $75,000 in 2007
STEPHEN GOT EVEN — $12,500 – DOWN from $20,000 in 2007
WANDO — $5,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
Lane’s End changes for 2008 – Up: 3, Down: 4, No Change: 12
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Tuesday, October 16th, 2007
Three Chimneys has announced their 2008 stud fees. They are:
ALBERT THE GREAT — $7,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
DYNAFORMER — $150,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
EXCHANGE RATE — $25,000 – UP from $10,000 in 2007
FLOWER ALLEY — $25,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
GOOD REWARD — $15,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
MEDALLIST — $7,500 – DOWN from $8,500 in 2007
POINT GIVEN — $15,000 – DOWN from $30,000 in 2007
RAHY — $60,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
SKY MESA — $30,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
SMARTY JONES — $100,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
WAR CHANT — $20,000 – DOWN from $30,000 in 2007
YES IT’S TRUE — $35,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
Three Chimneys changes for 2008 – Up: 1, Down: 3, No Change: 7
Exchange Rate arrives in Kentucky for 2008 from Padua Farm in Florida. He began his stud career at $10,000 in 2002, but Padua dropped his stud fee to $7,500 for 2003, 2004, and 2005. After his first crop came out of the gate running, his stud fee was adjusted back to $10,000. After his first two crops did remarkably well, his connections felt he’d earned a trip to Kentucky and a new stud fee – $25,000. Is he worth $25,000? I think yes. With just his third crop running in 2007, he’s sired NINE stakes winners this year, placing him in a tie for 9th place nationally! He’s now got 12 SWs (two of them G1 winners) for an eye-catching 8% SWs to foals. All of this on a $7,500-$10,000 stud fee.
Danzig is now the most influential sireline worldwide, but not so in America, primarily because sons of Danzig tend to sire back to the turf, which was Danzig’s own predilection has a sire. It is interesting to note that only two of Exchange Rate’s 12 SWs are on the turf. Another successful son of Danzig at stud in the U.S. is Langfuhr. He’s sired 35 SWs and less than half (17) won on the turf. It appears that the key to sons of Danzig making it at stud is America is their ability to sire dirt runners.
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Tuesday, October 16th, 2007
Claiborne has announced their 2008 stud fees. They are:
ARCH — $25,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
DURING — $5,000 – DOWN from $7,500 in 2007
EDDINGTON — $20,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
FIRST SAMURAI — $40,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
FLATTER — $5,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
HORSE CHESTNUT — $5,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
OUT OF PLACE — $7,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
POLITICAL FORCE — $15,000 – Retiring to stud in 2008
PULPIT — $80,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
SEEKING THE GOLD — $125,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
STROLL — $2,500 – DOWN from $5,000 from 2007
STRONG HOPE — $30,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
WAR FRONT — $12,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
Claiborne changes for 2008 – Up: 0, Down: 2, No Change: 10
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Tuesday, October 16th, 2007
Overbrook Farm announced their 2008 stud fees today. They are:
CAPE TOWN — $7,500 – DOWN from $10,000 in 2007
CAT THIEF — $7,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
GRINDSTONE — $3,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
JUMP START — $10,000 – DOWN from $20,000 in 2007
PIONEERING — $5,000 – NO CHANGE from 2007
STORM CAT — $300,000 – DOWN from $500,000 in 2007
TACTICAL CAT — $3,500 – NO CHANGE from 2007
At first glance, the reduction of Storm Cat’s stud fee by $200,000 might look a bit extreme. No doubt its because his yearling sale average was down a bit in 2007. Regardless of stud fee, Storm Cat is still “king of the hill” in America and its leading sire of sires.
They have reduced Jump Start’s fee from $20,000 to $10,000, and that makes him a very attractive proposition for breeders in his price range, commercially as well as breeding to race. In fact, 36 Jump Start yearlings sold in 2007 for an average of $53,704 and a median of $30,000!
Overbrook changes for 2008 - Up: 0, Down: 3, No Change: 4
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