Stroll down Derby lane ends with Jack

By Elaine Belval

I am pushing 40 and there are moments when something happens and I think, “Boy, I am getting old.”

The recent article in the Blood Horse describing “Generation Y” attributes definitely had me depressed.

A recent editorial in the Daily Racing Form had me thinking about my Derby memories.

Now, I am remembering how many I have watched, and it is dawning on me that horses I watched run in the Derby have retired or died.

My first Derby was Genuine Risk. I was a typical girl-mad 9-year-old and my mom told me a girl was running in the Derby. I remember thinking, “I hope she wins.” That was a very successful betting strategy for a 9-year-old!
My first serious Derby pick was Gulch in 1987. After careful consideration of past performances, I thought he was the horse to beat. Little did I know that Alysheba would turn out to be one of the best horses I have ever seen race.

In 1989, I was a huge Easy Goer fan and I was utterly devastated by his losses to Sunday Silence. It took me years to admit Sunday Silence was the better racehorse. And I have NEVER liked a horse the way I liked Easy Goer.

My first serious Derby pick to win was Strike the Gold in 1991 (no, I didn’t think Winning Colors would win; I should have had a talk with my 9-year-old self!). Strike the Gold was a solid and perfectly logical choice, dosage be damned!

My brother bet heavily on Go For Gin in 1994, because he thought the horse was named after the alcohol and not the card game. Don’t you hate those type of betting strategies?

My next pick to win was Silver Charm in 1997. Quite honestly, this was the easiest Derby in the world to handicap. I couldn’t understand how people could not think Silver Charm was the obvious choice. My picks to finish 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 finished 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 4. For a year, I thought I was the God of handicapping. I just wish other years were that easy.

1998 was a stand-out year for me, the year Real Quiet won. I worked at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants and helped plan his mating. Now, I wish I could say I thought he would win (but I didn’t!). But, after the race, I don’t think my feet touched the ground for hours. I remember calling a good friend of mine, and she told me later, “I knew the message was from you, but I couldn’t understand a word you said.”

I was working for Juddmonte Farms in 2003, the year that Funny Cide beat Empire Maker. I was very upset, and it showed. But, most of the other farm staff put on a brave face and made the most of a day most others would be thrilled with, four starters, two winners, two second-place finishers. I remember being embarrassed; I was associated with a Derby winner in Real Quiet, but I was handling Empire Maker’s loss worse than most of the others who didn’t have that privilege.

I thought Smarty Jones would win and I also thought Street Sense would take the Derby (tend to play the chalk a bit more than I should in the Derby).

This is the first year since 1977 that my friend and boss Jack Werk won’t be at the Derby. Werk Thoroughbred Consultants has the privilege of having two matings (Lookin at Lucky and Conveyance) and several “Best of Sale” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. I haven’t made up my mind on my choice just yet. I miss discussing my choices with Jack. But, I know come Saturday afternoon, wherever Jack is, he is watching the biggest racing day in the US and having a good time.

(Elaine Belval is Senior Pedigree Analyst at WTC.)

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Oasis has dream week

By Elaine Belval

It’s hard to argue that Oasis Dream had a career week.

Tuscan Evening wrapped it up with her fourth victory at the Santa Anita winter meeting, taking the G2 Santa Barbara H. The week started with Keredari winning the Loughbroun Stakes at the Curragh in Ireland (defeating another son of Oasis Dream in Jamaayel). Also earning black type in the past seven days were Alta Fedelta (Premio Seregno in Italy), Sri Putra (the G3 Earl of Sefton at Newmarket), and Arcano (second in the G3 Greenham S. at Newbury).

Oasis Dream, a son of the speedy Green Desert, had his first foals in 2005 (first runners in 2007) and he already has 28 unrestricted SWs including G1 winners Aqlaam, Naaqoos, and Midday (winner of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf). Oasis Dream was a brilliant sprinter himself, victorious in the prestigious 5f Nunthorpe and 6f Middle Park Stakes and July Cup—all G1 events. Though he himself never won over six furlongs, his first and second dams are by Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners Dancing Brave and Mill Reef, respectively, and his female family is noted for producing stayers. The dam,for example, is a sister to a 12f Irish Oaks winner, the 2nd dam won a Listed race at 12f and was Group placed at 15f, and the 3rd dam was DQ’d from first in the Irish Oaks and was placed in the G1 St.Leger over 14f. This likely explains that while 50% of his SWs are 2yo SWs, the average winning distance of his SWs 3 and up is 8.4 furlongs.

Oasis Dream is bred on a Northern Dancer/Northern Dancer cross (Green Desert out of a Dancing Brave mare). That has not stopped him for working very well with Northern Dancer-line mares (11 SWs including Tuscan Evening). And in fact there is only one unrestricted SW inbred to Green Desert and that is Great Voltigeur Stakes winner Monitor Closely. Oasis Dream finished 2009 with 19 unrestricted SWs (17 new for 2009). With the European racing season just starting, he already has 5 2010 SWs. It seems more than likely, with this impressive early start, Oasis Dream is likely to top his 2009 record. Oasis Dream stands at Banstead Manor Farm in England for a 2010 stud fee of £65,000.

(Elaine Belval is Senior Pedigree Analyst for WTC)

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A simple nick

By Sid Fernando

The late WTC founder Jack Werk spent a lot of time making pedigree analysis accessible and understandable. He, along with Roger Lyons, developed the Werk nick rating as a simple guide for users to gauge the effectiveness of sire line crosses, and he was actually quite adamant in insisting that a “nick” was just one of many factors that should be used to assess a mating, although there were many who tried to bury him as just another pedigree nut with a gimmick. Undeterred, Jack soldiered on with his message, which won out eventually, and he wrote about this over a year ago in a humorous post titled “Our Nicks and Your Common Sense!” It begins like this: “Every year around the start of the breeding season, I make a mental note to remind breeders who call in that the Werk nick rating – as important a tool as it is – is just one piece of information in breeding decisions. Now, with this blog going at full steam, I can actually get it off my chest in one shot. Here’s my annual advice about using nicks: Use common sense, folks!” I suggest you click the link above and read or reread it before proceeding forward.

Recently I came across some comments by a pedigree expert on a blog site that reminded me of Jack’s call for common sense. This expert—and I don’t call him a pedigree nut, but there are many that do—had analyzed a female family to such a dizzying degree that he’d found what he’d wanted to fit his theories. But he hadn’t figured that a simple explanation might have better served everyone, including a practical breeder’s needs in this particular case. I’m not going to rehash his stuff—it’s not necessary—except to say that he was wrong in only highlighting one horse from this family as its superior member when there were several, and these successful racehorses were all produced by a mare’s very obvious affinity for the Ribot sire line. In essence, it was an example of a very commonsensical nick between mare and a sire line, a simple nick, if you will.

Here it is: The mare in question was the SW BROWN BERRY (1960 by Mount Marcy out of Brown Baby, by Phalanx), a marvelous producer. Her offspring, with sire and sire line, are listed below. SWs are highlighted in bold caps, stakes placed in bold face type.

1965 Indian Berry (by Indian Hemp, by Nasrullah)

1966 Chief Ruler (by Fleet Nasrullah, by Nasrullah)

1967 Khalberry (by Khaled, by Hyperion)

1968 UNCONSCIOUS (by Prince Royal II, by Ribot) [Won California Derby, Charles H. Strub Stakes, etc]

1969 Brown Hare (by Coursing, by Fleet Nasrullah, by Nasrullah)

1971 Predisposed (by Coursing, by Fleet Nasrullah, by Nasrullah)

1972 AVATAR (by Graustark, by Ribot) [Won G1 Belmont Stakes, G1 Santa Anita Derby, G1 San Luis Rey,2nd G1 Kentucky Derby,etc]

1973 Glorieuse (by Prince Royal II, by Ribot)

1974 MONSEIGNEUR (by Graustark, by Ribot) [Won G2 Prix de Conseil de Paris, 2nd G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, etc]

1975 Conmemorativo (by Hoist the Flag, by Tom Rolfe, by Ribot)

1976 Parinda (by Damascus; Teddy line)

1977 Whitsett (by Damascus; Teddy line)

1978 Valeur (by Vaguely Noble; Hyperion line)

1979 Estoril (by Graustark,by Ribot)

1981 Grausberry (by Graustark, by Ribot)

1982 Welsh Berry (by Sir Ivor; Turn-to line to Nearco)

1983 Komaite (by Nureyev, by Northern Dancer)

1985 HOURS AFTER (by Alleged, by Hoist the Flag, by Tom Rolfe, by Ribot) [Won G1 Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby equivalent)]

1986 Brown Arc (by Alleged, by Hoist the Flag, by Tom Rolfe, by Ribot)

Brown Berry produced two classic winners in Avatar and Hours After, and what’s obvious right away is that whenever this mare was bred to a Ribot-line sire, she had success (with the exception of her last foal, Brown Arc, who was actually quite promising, winning once from 2 starts. At stud initially in New York, he sired the exceptional New York-bred G1 winner Perfect Arc.). Her early foals were bred by Arthur Seeligson (including Avatar) and her later foals were bred by Paul Sorren and Crown Breeding Corp. (Hours After). Both breeders sent her to sires outside the Ribot line but always came back to what had been successful for this remarkable mare, who had a thing for Ribot.

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Remembering Rahy

By Elaine Belval

When Rahy was pensioned by Three Chimneys Farm in the summer of 2009 it felt a great personal blow. Was there ever a stallion more greatly missed in recent American breeding? Not by me.

Rahy had been one of the most solid, and perhaps most under-appreciated sires, in recent memory. He sired a wide variety of truly classy individuals and yet his stud fee for his final season was still a relatively modest $50,000. Few stallions had G1 winners as diversified as the brilliant 2YOs Serena’s Song and Dreaming of Anna and the long-distance turf performers Fantastic Light and Dancing Forever. The European classic season is heating up and the presence of Rahy in those SWs had me missing him even more. Rahy’s daughter Rumoush won the 9f Feilden Stakes, a prep race for the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks. She is a daughter of Rahy out of a Mr. Prospector mare. Rahy, as a son of Blushing Groom out of a Halo mare, was a great choice for the more than numerous Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer-line mares. In fact, Rahy has 2SWs from 28 foals with daughters of Mr. Prospector (8% SWs to foals, his overall average). But with daughters of sons of Mr. Prospector, Rahy has 13 SWs from 81 foals (16%, twice is overall average). These SWs include G1 winners Shining Energy (Lycius), Allow (Machiavellian), and Dancing Forever (Seeking the Gold).

Rahy’s son Noverre sired Music Show, winner of the 7f G3 Nell Gwyn S., one of the oldest and most prestigious prep races for the 1000 Guineas. Like Rumoush, Music Show is also out of a daughter of Mr. Prospector. Noverre was sold to stand at Sohna Stud in India in 2008 after standing in both Europe and Australia. As a classic example of a stallion becoming popular as soon as he moves or dies, Noverre sired his first G1 winner in 2009 when son Le Havre took the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby equivalent). Rahy has a handful of scattered sons in the US. Perhaps his last chance to have a great son in the US is multiple GSW Lewis Michael (a full sister to Champion Dreaming of Anna) standing at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky. And out of a daughter of Broad Brush, Lewis Michael is the perfect outcross opportunity for those Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer-line mares that worked so well for Rahy.

(Elaine Belval is Senior Pedigree Analyst for WTC, Inc.)

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Giant’s Causeway as a broodmare sire

By Sid Fernando

With Eskendereya firmly entrenched as favorite for the Kentucky Derby with the major Derby preps out of the way, his sire, the Ashford Stud-based Giant’s Causeway, is enjoying the spotlight that goes to those that can get live classic contenders. The son of Storm Cat was the leading sire in the US in 2009 by progeny earnings, and Esky could be the big horse he’s needed to break through to the really elite level in the US. Already he’s had several European classic winners, and two of them, French Derby winner Shamardal and 2000 Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand, have started off with a bang at stud, too. Last year Shamardal was the leading first-crop sire in England, and he’s continued the momentum with his 3-year-olds this year in two hemispheres and around the globe: His Australian-bred 3yo daughter Faint Perfume won the G1 Victoria Oaks at Flemington last November and more recently took the G1 Storm Queen Stakes at Rosehill on April 3, and before that his 3yo NH daughter Siyaadah won the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan on Feb.11.

What’s gone unnoticed, though, are the performances of his first few daughters at stud, too. They, like his first sons, are beginning to crank out high-class winners, and Giant’s Causeway was represented by his first two SWs as a broodmare sire over the last eight days: On April 3, the Northern Afleet filly Evening Jewel, produced from the Giant’s Causeway mare Jewel of the Night, won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland; and on Sunday, April 11, the progressive Danehill Dancer colt Planteur, from the Giant’s Causeway mare Plante Rare, won the G2 Prix Noailles at Longchamp.

Both SWs from the Giant’s Causeway mares are classics contenders, with Evening Jewel expected to contest the Kentucky Oaks, and Planteur being aimed for the French Derby, the same race that Shamardal won in 2005. The same year, lest it be forgotten, he also won the French Guineas equivalent, the Poule D’essai Des Poulians.

These early signs of prepotence from Giant’s Causeway with sons and daughters as racehorses and breeding stock are exciting and are usually the marks of the special ones. Time will tell for sure, but so far, so good.

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Ghostzapper finally off the mark

By Sid Fernando

Ghostzapper was a freak, according to his late trainer, Bobby Frankel. A homebred for Frank Stronach, Ghostzapper was indeed freakishly fast and had a freak’s record of 9 wins from 11 starts, $3,446,120 in earnings, including wins in the G1 Vosburgh at 3, the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Woodward at 4, and the G1 Metropolitan Mile at 5. The raw times of his races were dazzling as well, and often he won by open lengths, too. He won the Met Mile by 6-plus lengths in 1:33.29 for 8f; the BC Classic by 3 lengths in 1:59.02 for 10f; the G2 Tom Fool by 4-plus in 1:20.42 for 7f; the G1 Vosburgh by 6-plus in 1:14.72 for 6.5f, etc. His Beyer Speed Figures were super freaky, too. The 128 he earned in the 9f Iselin, a race he won by 10-plus lengths in 1:47.66, was the highest of the year, and he frequently ran figs in the 120s and was widely considered one of the best racehorses of recent times. The only thing he wasn’t was durable: only 11 starts over four seasons.

GHOSTZAPPER

When Ghostzapper retired to stud for the 2006 season at Mr. Stronach’s Adena Springs in Paris, Ky., he did so for a record fee of $200,000 live foal—the co-highest fee for a first-year sire since Devil’s Bag about 20 years earlier at the exact fee. Much was expected, but through 2009 he’d been represented by only one SW and until today had looked like a catastrophic commercial failure in the making, another big-priced money burner. This was reflected in his 2010 fee, which had been slashed to only $30,000 live foal—down another $20,000 from the $50,000 announced fee last fall—to attract mares. That fee, in turn, was down drastically from the $125,000 he’d stood for in 2009.

Today, however, was a day of redemption for Ghostzapper and the Adena Springs team at Keeneland. The race was the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, and the winner was the longest shot on the board and a son of Ghostzapper named Stately Victor. At 40-1, he overhauled Paddy O’Prado, a son of the late Adena Springs stalwart El Prado, to thrust himself into the Kentucky Derby picture. He is one of five sons of Ghostzapper nominated to the Triple Crown but at this stage the only one who will make the Kentucky classic. Befitting his odds, he’s now made an awesome comeback for his sire as well.

A son of Awesome Again—who also has Awesome Act on the classics trail—Ghostzapper is from the Maryland SW Baby Zip, a daughter of Relaunch. He’s a half-brother to the sprinter and sire City Zip, a G1 winner at 2, and his 2nd dam is the Tri Jet SW Thirty Zip, a hard-knocking mare who earned more than $500K. But this isn’t a particularly glamorous, commercial family, and the classiest horse in the recent family aside from Ghostzapper is Kentucky Derby winner Lil E. Tee—indented a few times under the 3rd dam. It is, however, the type of “running” family that Adena has used to great effect to produce high-class racehorses. Adena, by the way, also is the breeder of Stately Victor, whose Dynaformer dam Collect the Cash was a G1 winner.

The commercial marketplace is not kind to stallions that don’t get off the mark right away, but it should be duly noted that Ghostzapper himself was not a top-class 2yo (1 win from 2 starts) and did not become a SW until late in his 3yo year when he won the Vosburgh. His offspring, obviously, are not shining early either. But with his oldest crop just 3 and a new G1 winner in the bag, and with a lot more racing to come, there’s now plenty of hope that he can still deliver at stud with later 3yos and possibly older runners, just as he himself developed from 3 to 4 to 5. And the Ghostzappers wouldn’t have to be as good as him, either, to make a name for him. Half as good as a freak is plenty good enough for a racehorse.

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Dr. Zic another good 3yo filly for Milwaukee Brew

By Elaine Belval

When Wild Again was pensioned at Three Chimneys Farm in the fall of 2004 it seemed the end of the line for the Icecapade branch of Nearctic. Clever Trick had died that summer and Phone Trick would die the next year. A few scattered sons and grandsons remained, but there did not appear to be any “big names” to replace the sorely missed big guns of the Icecapade branch—a line noted for sound, durable horses. Luckily for US breeders, it appears Offlee Wild and Milwaukee Brew failed to get that memo. Offlee Wild, standing at Darley for a 2010 fee of $7,500 and scheduled to depart to La Leyenda in Argentina for the SH season, was the leading freshman sire of 2009 and sire of Eclipse champion 2yo filly She Be Wild. Much has been written about him in the past six months. But Milwaukee Brew should not be left in the shadow of his paternal half-brother.

Milwaukee Brewwas bred in Kentucky by Robert Spiegel. He was purchased at the Keeneland September sale by Adena Springs and raced in Adena owner Frank Stronach’s colors for four years. He won eight races, five stakes, including consecutive runnings of the G1 Santa Anita Handicap, at ages 5 and 6. An injury in the Pacific Classic prompted retirement and he landed at Adena’s Florida farm, standing for a modest $15,000. His first crop of 2YOs raced in 2007, and he had 16 winners and over $470,000 in earnings. Things stepped up in 2008 when he sired the winner of the prestigious Canadian Oaks, Ginger Brew, who later finished a close second in the Queen’s Plate (Canada’s version of the Derby). Things continued in 2009 when Milwaukee Appeal won the Canadian Oaks and finished second in the Prince of Wales’s S. (second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown). Both fillies earned Canadian Champion 3YO filly Sovereign Awards. Just yesterday, Milwaukee Brew’s daughter Dr. Zic upset heavily favored Eclipse Champion Informed Decision in the G1 Madison S. at Keeneland. From three crops of racing age (not including 2YOs of 2010), this son of Wild Again has sired the very impressive 75% starters and 49% winners, plus 9 SWs. Note that the 2007 crop is still getting to the races, and if you examine his stats crop by crop, the numbers improve. He has 87% runners and 68% winners from his first crop, and 83% runners and 53% winners from his second crop. Those are exactly the types of figures that have been associated with the Icecapde line.

When Adena Springs decided to close its Florida stallion division, it was a logical decision to send Milwaukee Brew to its location in Ontario. After all, the stallion has only sired the last two winners of the prestigious Canadian Oaks! With Dr. Zic’s victory in the G1 at Keeneland, clearly the offspring of Milwaukee Brew have no trouble with Polytrack (the surface at both Keeneland and Woodbine). It’s also notable that his best runners and most of his SWs to date are fillies, although Thunder Brew, a colt, won a turf stakes on April 3rd . Milwaukee Brew stands at Adena Springs/Gardiner Farms Ltd. for a 2010 fee of $12,500 (Canadian), which is value for a sire with three high-class fillies from each of his first three crops.

(Elaine Belval is Senior Pedigree Analyst at WTC)

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Successful Appeal has the right numbers

By Elaine Belval

It’s that time of year again. It’s the time when the precocious 2yos start appearing. The future.

On Friday, Keeneland’s opening day for its Spring 2010 meeting, the 2yo 4.5f maiden race was won by Wetzel, a son of Successful Appeal. Successful Appeal was from one of the last crops of the great Florida sire Valid Appeal. He was bred by Harry Mangurian at his famous Mockingbird Farm. And like so many Valid Appeals, he showed his ability for trainer John Kimmel and owner Starview Stable from the very beginning.

He made his first start in a Saratoga maiden special weight and finished a strong second. He won second time out and proceeded to add an allowance and the G2 Cowdin at Belmont to the win column. He finished second in the G3 Nashua S. to Doneraile Court and ended the year with a fourth in the G2 Remsen—both staying races for juveniles.

Like all good 2yos, Successful Appeal started his 3yo season on the Triple Crown trail. But after several unplaced efforts, Kimmel realized he had a sprinter on his hands and this change in strategy earned quick returns. His victory in the G2 Kentucky Cup Sprint earned him a trip to the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint where he finished only 3 1/2 lengths behind Artax, who set a track record performance at Gulfstream Park.

Returning at 4, Successful Appeal won the G2 Vanderbilt H. at Saratoga and finished a length behind Shadow Caster in the G1 Forego Handicap. John T. L. Jones acquired an interest in the colt as a 4yo and retired him to Walmac South in Ocala, Florida. He stood for the modest fee of $5,000. The highest-priced stallion to go to stud that year, in contrast, was Fusaichi Pegasus at $150,000.

Buyers saw something they liked early. His weanlings sold for average prices over $15,000, his yearlings over $40,000 and his first crop of 2yos over $60,000. And the buyers were more than rewarded with racetrack performance.

Successful Appeal is an excellent example of “it’s not how many foals you have, but the quality you get.” He led the 2004 Freshman sire list, with 6 SWs from 43 foals. Finishing third on the list was Fusaichi Pegasus with 4 SWs from 82 foals, and 4th was Giant’s Causeway with 4 SWs from 138 foals. Among Successful Appeal’s SWs were GSW (and future Kentucky Derby placer) Closing Argument and multiple Churchill Downs 2yo SW Lunarpal. From that first crop of 43 foals, Successful Appeal has had 9 SWs (21%!).

Living up to his name, Successful Appeal, naturally, was moved to Kentucky for the 2005 breeding season (first 2yos ran in 2008). From that crop, he already has 7 SWs.

Now, it is not surprising that Successful Appeal is averaging over 25% 2yo winners. And it is not surprising that among his 22 unrestricted SWs, over 40% are 2yo SWs. What is surprising is that his 3yo and up SWs are averaging almost nine furlongs in winning distance!

This duality was best exemplified this weekend. For as Wextel won the 4.5f maiden race at Keeneland, Successful Appeal’s 5yo son Goldsville won the 9f G3 Excelsior S. at Aqueduct for trainer Michael Hushion and owner Marc Ferrell.

Successful Appeal stands at Walmac International in Kentucky for the still relatively modest fee of $17,500.

(Elaine Belval is Senior Pedigree Analyst at WTC, Inc.)

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