By Elaine Belval

Tiznow was a gutsy performer, and it’s a hard individual who doesn’t admire this racehorse. Two Breeders’ Cup Classics, and the Santa Anita Handicap dominate his resume. In fact, in a 15-race career, he was off the board only once. And Tiznow has three full siblings that were almost as tough as he was, including Budroyale who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Tizbud who won the California Cup Classic.

Tiznow is a son of the great California sire Cee’s Tizzy. While Tiznow is clearly the best runner this sire had, Cee’s Tizzy also sired the G1 winners Gourmet Girl and Cost of Freedom in his long, successful career best known and appreciated in the West. He was pensioned in 2010, and he is a huge loss to California’s breeding industry. Cee’s Tizzy is a son of the great In Reality son Relaunch. While a leading sire himself, Relaunch had several solid sons at stud (including G1 winners Skywalker, Honour and Glory, and Waquoit), but he never sired anything who was in his league as a sire and with his passing it seemed yet another blow to the survival of the great Man O’ War sire line from which he descended.

Despite a pedigree that wasn’t particularly commercial or glittering by Kentucky standards, Tiznow was retired to WinStar Farm as a joint venture with Taylor Made Farm based on his race record and physique, as he is a large horse like his own sire. While Tiznow had a very West Coast pedigree, Kentucky breeders supported him as he had 89 named foals in his first crop. And Tiznow announced loud and clear in that first crop that he was going to be a serious sire: Champion two-year-old filly Folklore won the G1 Matron before a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fillies, earning Tiznow leading first-crop sire honors in 2005.  It took his second G1 winner a bit more time to show himself, but Well Armed added the G1 Dubai World Cup in 2009 when he was six. In between and since, however, there have been plenty of top-quality runners on all surfaces and ages and distances.

And that epitomizes Tiznow’s success. He has 35 SWs (6% SWs to foals, not including 2011 two-year-olds). Just over 20% are two-year-old SWs. Approximately 16% of his earners won on turf (average for the US) and 35% won on artificial surfaces. Just over 60% of his SWs are Graded stakes winners. His progeny have won stakes races from six to 12 furlongs. And his progeny have average earnings over $85,000. And despite this, his Comparable Index is still a fairly low 1.96 (of the 15 stallions in Kentucky in 2011 with stud fees $50,000 and over, only three had CIs lower than Tiznow).

On Monday, Tizway won the G1 Metropolitan H., winning the prestigious mile race by almost three lengths in the impressive time of 1:32.90.  His jockey, Rajiv Maragh was quoted in racing publications as saying, “He’ll kill you with a high cruising speed, that’s what his weapon is.” The six-year-old is Tiznow’s second G1 winner of 2011 (following Morning Line’s victory in the G1 Carter) and his sixth SW overall. Tizway was bred by Whisper Hill Farm, is owned by William L. Clifton, Jr. and is trained by James Bond.

Tiznow has had more than $5 million in progeny earnings for the last several years, and is well on his way to passing that total again in 2011. Tiznow continues to stand at Winstar as part of a Winstar/Taylor Made Venture. His 2011 fee was $75,000.

By Elaine Belval

Animal Kingdom was an unlikely Kentucky Derby winner on “dirt form,” the quality of his preps, and racing experience. He had raced only four times, all on turf or synthetics. His last race was the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, not one of the more prestigious prep races for the Kentucky Derby in the last 10 years. Animal Kingdom, however, did not care what anyone thought of his lack of experience, quality of competition or surface preferences. He clearly dominated what seemed an evenly matched Derby and ran one of the fastest closing half-miles in its storied history, at 20-1.

Animal Kingdom is by 2005 champion turf horse Leroidesanimaux, who was bred in Brazil by Haras Bage Do Sul. By Candy Stripes, he  is out of the ex-Juddmonte mare Dissemble. I had the privilege of working at Juddmonte Farms in Kentucky for several years and am familiar with this family from the inside: Dissemble is an older sister to the great mare Hasili (dam of five Grade 1 winners); and the family entered the Juddmonte stud book through the purchase of Sookera – a daughter of Roberto and winner of the prestigious Cheveley Park Stakes as a two-year-old. As any homebred program can attest, everything cannot be retained, and at the time, it was not clear exactly what Sookera’s subsequent generations would produce. So, the unraced Dissemble went through the ring (cheaply) and was sold to South American interests. Along with Leroidesanimaux, Dissemble also produced G1 winner Uapybo and G3 winner Disport – proving the true blue blood of this family.

Leroidesanimaux is by the French classic-placed Blushing Groom stallion Candy Stripes, a leading sire in Argentina. Many of his best runners were exported to race in the US and they include Horse of the Year Invasor (who has his first two-year-olds racing in 2011) in addition to Leroidesanimaux and others.

Leroidesanimaux’s race record is as impressive as his international pedigree. After finishing second in a South American G1 race (Brazil), he was sent to the US to race for TNT stables. He didn’t race here at 3, but he compiled a record of eight wins in 10 starts, including impressive victories in the G1 Citation H. and NCR in the G2 Fourstardave H. at Saratoga and the G3 Inglewood H. at Hollywood at 4 and 5. Altogether, he won three G1 events.

Leroidesanimaux retired to stud at Stonewall Farm in Kentucky. Despite his impressive pedigree and race record, he had two “knocks” against him – his South American-bred pedigree and his turf performances. This limited his stud fee and the number of mares bred to him versus comparable types.

But, despite having only 67 foals in his first crop (now four-year-olds), Leroidesanimaux has two graded winners and two graded-placed performers. Earlier this year, his daughter Always a Princess defeated champion Blind Luck in the G2 El Encino S. on the dirt at Santa Anita. His second crop has 59 named foals, and along with Animal Kingdom, it includes the G1 placed Glor Na Mara (second in the prestigious G1 Phoenix S. in Ireland). Leroidesanimaux ranks very highly in Bill Oppenheim’s APEX stallion ratings showcased in the Thoroughbred Daily News.

Animal Kingdom has a promising future based on his easy victory in the Derby. And it seems likely, Leroidesanimaux is finally going to get serious respect from US breeders.

Leroidesanimaux stands at Stonewall Farm in Ocala, FL and his 2011 fee is $10,000.

By Elaine Belval

I find it strange how politics can overlap into other aspects of your life in unexpected ways. Without getting too political, let’s just say I didn’t vote for George Bush.

In New Zealand, Waikato Stud stands one of the best stallions in the region, named O’Reilly. Now, every time this sire shows up in the pedigree of SWs (and he shows up a lot!), I cringe. O’Reilly is doing his best to continue the line of Northern Dancer through Try My Best.  Now, O’Reilly was bred in New Zealand and he was born in 1993, so I seriously doubt he is named for a certain conservative TV personality by the same name. But, that doesn’t stop the internal cringe.

Now, imagine a horse actually named for said TV personality’s TV show!

The Factor proved super-impressive winning the G2 Rebel S. at Oaklawn some weeks back. I was sure he was a tired horse turning into the stretch, ready to be overwhelmed by several of his competitors. But, a couple of taps, and before I knew it, he was powering home by lengths. Clearly, an extended eight furlongs is not beyond this horse’s capabilities. He is an exciting prospect, Derby or not.

His sire, War Front, is proving a revelation, especially to me.

As I have mentioned before, selecting future good stallions from among unproven sires is one of the most difficult things in horse racing, and few people are truly experts at it. And I have to admit, War Front was not a stallion I had high expectations for.

It’s not as if he didn’t stand at one of the most successful stallions farms in racing history (Claiborne Farm). It’s not like he didn’t have an excellent pedigree (by leading sire Danzig out of SW and multiple GSP Starry Dreamer. She, in turn, the dam of three other SWs). But, while War Front was a very successful runner (winning the G2 Vanderbilt S. and finishing second in two G1 races), he was not a G1 winner. And, while Danzig has a couple of very nice sons at stud in the US (including Kentucky-based Exchange Rate and Langfuhr), his US-based sons have not come close to a Danehill’s or Green Desert’s influence in the US. So,  I thought War Front was up against it.

Apparently my opinion didn’t matter to War Front.

He is the current leading second-crop sire in 2011. Perhaps more astonishing, he is currently ranked 15th on the General Sire List (mind you, he has just one crop of just turned three-year-old racing right now). He is ranked ahead of such quality sires as Sky Mesa, Stormy Atlantic, and Tiznow. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that he has two contenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Soldat was an impressive winner of the G2 Fountain of Youth and is headed towards the Derby despite a fifth-place finish in the Florida Derby. And The Factor will be heavily favored this weekend in the Arkansas Derby.

War Front is showing all the signs of being as versatile as his sire Danzig was. Half of his SWs were two-year-old SWs, and three have won on turf (including the ultra-versatile Soldat). This bodes well for War Front, as he is certain to attract a wide range of mares. War Front stands at Claiborne Farm, and his 2011 fee is $15,000 (but, good luck getting to him at this point!).

Now, I generally make my Derby predictions Derby week. But, let’s just say, I am more likely to be rooting for Soldat—even with the Florida Derby loss—than The Factor!

(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC.)

By Sid Fernando

Dialed In, the winner of the G1 Florida Derby Sunday at Gulfstream Park, is by the A.P. Indy sire Mineshaft, who started his career at Lane’s End with great fanfare and a $100,000 stud fee in 2004, wobbled early, but has come on late to make a case for himself and vindicate the view we had of him here at WTC, Inc.

Four years ago, when Mineshaft’s first crop of 2-year-olds hit the track in 2007, the late Jack Werk, founder of WTC, Inc., predicted big things for the stallion in a post here on April 17, 2007, on freshmen sires:

April 17th, 2007

1. VINDICATION
I love Vindication’s chances to become 2007′s leading freshman sire, as well as becoming a major long-term success. He’s got almost all the things I like to see in a stallion prospect. He was a brilliant runner. He retired undefeated, won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and was named Champion 2YO of 2002.
From a pedigree standpoint, he is, in my opinion, the best outcross (no Mr. Prospector and only one distant strain of Northern Dancer in his pedigree) to come along in the U.S. since A.P. Indy (also by Seattle Slew).
He is also a standout conformationally, as his $2.15 million yearling sale price would indicate. More importantly, he is passing on his athletic good looks to his progeny. He had the highest weanling average and second-highest yearling average among all freshman sires with several bringing over a million dollars.
I thought he was a bargain at $50,000 his first year at stud and the same when they increased his fee to $60,000 the second year. Commercial breeders agree and I expect those who breed to race will agree before the year is over!

2. MINESHAFT
I don’t know if he will sire enough precocious two-year-olds to get him to the top of the standings by year’s end, but as a future stallion superstar, Mineshaft is a no-brainer! He’s by A.P. Indy, and out of a Mr. Prospector mare who produced five foals and they are ALL stakes winners. After a mediocre racing career on the turf in Europe at two and three, he came home where he promptly won seven stakes races (four of them G1), and earned $2.2 million + at four, for which he was named 2003′s Horse of the Year. He had the second-highest weanling average and third-highest yearling average among all freshman sires. Great pedigree, great race record, great sale averages — what more can I say?

3. EMPIRE MAKER
Empire Maker is definitely capable of proving me wrong on my top two selections! He’s a classic winner with a blue-chip pedigree top and bottom. He is by Unbridled and out the incomparable Toussaud, dam of five graded stakes winners. And, Empire Maker had the highest yearling sale average of all the freshman sires.
——————————————————–

Vindication is dead, Empire Maker—successful here—is now in Japan, but Mineshaft continues to sire quality SWs after appearing early that he might flop. He is also a part of the A.P. Indy brigade of sires (and Vindication was by Slew) that we were and are bullish on for the US environment because they are suited for dirt and bring stamina back to the equation. Horses like Malibu Moon, Pulpit and his sons (which include Tapit), plus younger studs Congrats and Bernardini and others are continuing the momentum of this line.

Last year, A.P. Indy’s son Pulpit was represented by the Florida Derby winner Ice Box for Dialed In’s connections—owner Robert LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito—and that colt ran a good second in the Kentucky Derby. Dialed In is now headed to Louisville, too, where he stands a great chance. By winning the Florida Derby, Dialed in became his sire’s second G1 winner behind G1 sprinter Discreetly Mine—now at stud at Lane’s End.

Altogether the sire of 20 SWs (which does not include his Russian Derby winner and President’s Cup winner Monomakh), Mineshaft has shown a tendency to get speedier types than he himself was on the track, but part of this may be due to the inbreeding to Mr. Prospector that is evident in many of his SWs. Plus in the case of his son Fly Down—also trained by Zito until recently—it didn’t stop him from a second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes.

Mineshaft stands for $25,000 live foal and is the current leading fourth-crop sire.

By Sid Fernando

Jim Squires, an eminent but controversial author and a breeder of  a Kentucky Derby winner, published a piece in the New York Times today that took an uneducated swipe at nicks. You can read it here.

Mr. Squires is well known for taking on issues in the business and is entitled to his views, of course, but it’s unfortunate he didn’t research the concept of nicking—which has been around since racehorses were bred—before slamming it in front of millions of readers.

“Seth Hancock once told me that you can proceed at your own risk if you ignore nicks,” said major breeder John Greathouse to me at the Fasig-Tipton February sale. And this is why we furnish John—and many of the major owners and breeders in the country—with nicks for sales and matings.

Nicks, however, are only one piece of the puzzle. I would suggest that Mr. Squires read the post below, published here on February 16, 2009. It’s yet another plea by the late Jack Werk, who did more than anyone to develop and promote the widespread use of nicks through the Werk Nick Rating, to use common sense when evaluating nicks. They are only a tool, he’d tell clients over and over again, just as speed figures are—only a tool and one piece of the puzzle to a handicapper.

Indeed, here at WTC Inc., we will frequently suggest matings and select “Best of Sales” for horses that have a range of nicks, from C to A+++, based on other factors in the pedigree, including the dam’s production record, her female family’s affinity with sires, and the depth of the family, among many other considerations.

Planning matings is really not as simplistic—and breeders are not as stupid—as Mr. Squires makes them out to be.

Below is Jack’s article:

February 16th, 2009

Our Nicks and Your Common Sense!

By Jack Werk

Every year around the start of the breeding season, I make a mental note to remind breeders who call in that the Werk nick rating — as important a tool as it is — is just one piece of information in breeding decisions. Now, with this blog going at full steam, I can actually get it off my chest in one shot. Here’s my annual advice about using nicks: Use common sense, folks!

One of my favorite examples to demonstrate this is the Storm Cat/Rahy nick, which is an A+ Werk nick rating. There have been 12 unrestricted SWs on this cross, including 7 Graded SWs. Storm Cat’s best son, the G1-winning Coolmore stallion Giant’s Causeway, is bred on this nick, as are G1 winners Sophisticat and After Market.

The success of this nick meant that a lot of Rahy mares started going to sons of Storm Cat, too. Now, here’s where the common sense comes into play. Everyone knows that Rahy is a small stallion and tends to get smallish horses, too.

Now, let’s take the Storm Cat stallion Storm Boot (now deceased), who was also a small horse, as an example. The Storm Boot/Rahy cross is an A Werk nick rating, but the physical match between the stallion and the mare would have to be a major consideration, certainly for the commercial market that demands big yearlings. I would not advocate breeding a small mare by Rahy to a smallish stallion like Storm Boot, even though our rating, based on the performances described above, is sound. A larger mare, sure!

The bottom line here is that we stand behind our nicks – we’ve been doing this for 20 years – but YOU stand next to your mare, and as a breeder you need to use our tools with your good sense. That’s the only way we can help you increase your probability of producing a better racehorse!

By Elaine Belval

Game on Dude won a controversial running of the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) this past weekend, agreed. Now, you can say what you want about the race itself (and Ray Paulick has an excellent editorial on the subject on his blog, the Paulick Report), but it would be tough to argue that Game on Dude’s sire, Awesome Again, is not one of the best sires standing in the US.

Awesome Again is a product of the powerful Stronach Stable, a perennial Eclipse Award winner as breeder. He was bred in Ontario and earned victories in the Canadian classic, the Queen’s Plate, before winning one of the best Breeders’ Cup Classics, in 1998. With nine victories in 12 starts (including seven stakes), Awesome Again retired to stud with a $50,000 stud fee and high expectations.

Awesome Again had his first runners in 2002, and he quickly got off the mark with the super impressive 2-year-old Toccet (winner of the G1 Champagne S. and Hollywood Futurity). Awesome of Course (better known as the sire of 2010 Champion 2-year-0ld filly Awesome Feather) also earned black type as a 2-year-old, with a victory in the Inaugural S. at Tampa Bay.

That first crop had eight stakes winners in it. Of course, his best known turned out to be Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, whose G1 victories included the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Met Mile.

Awesome Again hasn’t slowed down since. Perhaps his best year was 2004, when Ghostzapper won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Wilko shocked everyone by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  And, if that wasn’t enough, Awesome Again has had two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Ginger Punch and Round Pond), and with four winners of Breeders’ Cup races, he leads all other active stallions in this category.

What Awesome Again does better than most in the US is sire quality. He has 24 GSWs among his 42 lifetime SWs (including 11 G1 winners). Fully 7.5% of his lifetime winners are GSWs. And his average earnings per starter is a whopping $100,000 (only two currently active stallions top that!).

Awesome Again sires a modest 10% two-year-old winners. His best runners improve with age and continue to win stakes races at five, six and seven, which is not common for most sires. They also stay 10 furlongs when given the opportunity, as Game on Dude did in the Big ‘Cap and Ghostzapper and others have shown.

Game on Dude is owned by the Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable, & B C Schiappa; he was bred by Adena Springs, and he is trained by Bob Baffert, a fan of the sire. Indeed, the future looks bright for this 4-year-old, whose next start may be in the 10-furlong Dubai World Cup.

Awesome Again stands at Adena Springs Farm in Kentucky and his 2011 fee is $50,000.

(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC.)

By Elaine Belval

On Feb. 5th, Teaks North, the longest shot on the board at 25-1, won the G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap at 9F to become Northern Afleet’s latest winner at the highest level and his fourth SW of the new year. The weekend before, he’d had a banner day at the Sunshine Millions.

The Sunshine Millions was developed to showcase the best California and Florida-bred horses of the year. However, bettors could be forgiven for thinking the 2011 Sunshine Millions was “Northern Afleet Day.” This Taylor Made-based sire had three winners on the Sunshine Millions card, two at Santa Anita and one at Gulfstream Park.

His four-year-old filly Evening Jewel won the 8.5 furlong Distaff S. at Santa Anita. Trained by James Cassidy, owned by Tom and Marilyn Braly and bred by the Mabees of California, Evening Jewel was one of the better three-year-old fillies in 2010, winning the G1 Ashland S. and Del Mar Oaks.

His four-year-old filly Aegean won the Filly and Mare Sprint S. at six furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Trained by Wesley Ward, owned by Steven and Michael Bell and bred by Vegso Racing Stable (FL), Aegean has now won stakes at two, three and four.

His five-year-old gelding won the Sprint S. at six furlongs at Santa Anita. Traned by William Spawr, owned by Thomas Sanford and bred by Gregg Anderson (CA), this was the gelding’s first stakes victory. Finishing behind him was the G1 winner Cost of Freedom.

Northern Afleet was bred in Kentucky by Hermitage Farm. He was sired by Canadian Champion Afleet. Afleet started off slowly as a stallion at Gainesway Farm in Kentucky and was sold to Japan. That may have been a mistake for this son of Mr. Prospector. Afleet has more than 60 SWs lifetime, including two champions.

His son Northern Afleet won three stakes races in a four-year racing career for owners Greg Anderson and Ronald Waranch and trainer David Hofmans. He won a maiden race at Del Mar at two, placed in the G1 Malibu S. at three and won the G2 San Fernando Breeders’ Cup S. and finished third in the G1 Met Mile at four. He retired to stud at Double Diamond Farm in Florida for a modest $5,000 fee. That ultimately proved a bargain for his early investors.

In his first crop of 38 named foals, he had eight SWs (yes, folks, a whopping 21% SWs to foals!). After future classic winner Afleet Alex won the G1 Hopeful S., Northern Afleet was moved to Taylor Made Farm in Kentucky for the 2005 season, so his first Kentucky-bred two-year-olds raced in 2008. The first crop of Kentucky-breds included major winners Big City Man and Negligee.

Northern Afleet has sired the super-impressive 80% starters (not including two-year-olds of 2011), over 60% winners, and a very good 6% SWs. His progeny average over 70,000/starter. And with an Average Earnings Index of 1.62 and a Comparable Index of 1.40, Northern Afleet improves his mares 15%. And as his three victors on the Sunshine Millions card show, Northern Afleet is a most prolific sire of sprinter/milers. And as four-year-old Teaks North just demonstrated, he can sire winners at the highest level on turf, too. In short, he’s a versatile sire and underrated to boot. At present, he’s ranked third on the General Sire List by progeny earnings, behind Giant’s Causeway and Stephen Got Even.

Northern Afleet continues to stand at Taylor Made Farm in Kentucky and his 2011 stud fee is a downright cheap $12,500.

(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC, Inc.)

By Elaine Belval

One of my favorite singers, Vince Gill, has a great song called “The Next Big Thing,” which contains the lyrics, “They all hail the brand new king, Everybody’s waiting for the next big thing.”

In a way, this reminds me of stallions. Everyone is hot on the “Next Big Thing, ” that new sire who will be the next Danzig or Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer. And, sometimes, this leaves older, proven stallions standing in the dust of the stampede to find the next big thing.

This weekend, however, was a great weekend for two “Ole Reliables” standing at Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky.

Wilkinson won the G3 Lecomte S. at the Fair Grounds at just over one mile. He is by the 15-year-old Lemon Drop Kid. It’s hard to believe it has been over 10 years since Lemon Drop Kid spoiled Charismatic’s Triple Crown Bid with his victory in the G1 Belmont S. Lemon Drop Kid was one of the most consistent racehorses in the late 1990s, winning G1 races at two, three and four. As a son of leading sire Kingmambo out of the same female family as A.P. Indy, big things were expected and Lemon Drop Kid has not disappointed.

Over the years, Lemon Drop Kid has sired 74% starters, 54% winners, and an excellent 10% SWs to foals (not including two-year-olds of 2011). His average earnings per starter is over $75,000. His G1 winners include a Kentucky Oaks winner (Lemons Forever) and a two-time Pacific Classic winner (Richard’s Kid). Perhaps a touch surprising considering Lemon Drop Kid was a dirt performer, almost 50% of his progeny earnings come from turf and almost 50% of his SWs are turf SWs, but note his sire was predominantly turf, too.

Lemon Drop Kid has had colts on the Derby Trail before, but despite an impressive resume as a sire, a classic victory is missing. Perhaps Wilkinson (bred and raced by Gaillardia LLC and trained by Neil Howard) can notch that first win for this veteran stallion. His 2011 fee is $35,000.

Also impressing this weekend for an “old-timer” was Euroears, winner of the G2 Palos Verdes S. for owner James & Marilyn Helzer and trainer Bob Baffert. An earlier SW, Euroears notched his first graded stakes victory in his career with the victory. He is by the 19-year-old Langfuhr.

And what has Langfuhr done in his career? As a racehorse, he “only” won three G1 races and was a champion. As a sire, he “only” has over 80% starters, 60% winners, and a solid 5% SWs (not including two-year-olds of 2011). His progeny “only” average over $70,000 in earnings. He only has a Canadian triple crown winner in Wando, a brilliant champion in Lawyer Ron (along with three others), and an Arlington Million winner in Jambalaya. He has “only” ranked in the top 15 on the General Sire List for seven consecutive years. And I could go on. Seriously, it’s hard to think of a sire that has done more than Langfuhr that is currently at stud. His 2011 stud fee is $15,000.

Perhaps, with the early success of Euroears and Wilkinson in 2011, breeders with quality mares will ignore that “next big thing” and take a serious look at two of the best “ole reliables” available in Kentucky.

(Elaine Belval is senior pedigree analyst at WTC.)